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Key Items Needed to Obtain a Prediction
Flowering date–
You will be asked to identify the flowering date for your fields.
Visit fields to determine the date when anthers are exposed on 15% of
the heads. Wheat is most susceptible during the flowering growth
stage, and the models will use weather conditions observed during the
seven days prior to the flowering date you select. Planting date and
variety will affect flowering dates so each field may have a
different flowering date. (You can use the 24 and 48 hour forecast
buttons in the upper left corner of the tool to help you estimate
risk several days before the actual flowering date).
We suggest that you
monitor the risk of disease in your area for a full week prior to
flowering. As the wheat crop approaches the actual flowering date, we
recommend that you also monitor your local weather forecast. The
greatest risk for scab occurs when weather conditions prior to
flowering have been conducive for reproduction of the fungus
(indicated by yellow or red colors on the risk map), and when weather
during the early stages of kernel development favors infection.
Three or more days with frequent rainfall and moderate temperatures
(65 to 80 F) during the kernel development may significantly increase
the risk of head scab.
Wheat class–
Identify whether you are growing a spring wheat (spring planted) or
winter wheat (fall planted). This selection will activate different
components of the system and customize the prediction for your crop.
Production practices–
If you select spring wheat, you will be asked to provide
information about the resistance level of the variety planted in your
fields. This is important because planting a susceptible variety may
significantly increase your risk of disease. Most varieties of wheat
are susceptible to head scab, and we advise that you use this as the
default level of resistance unless you know that your wheat variety
has a different level of resistance to head scab. More information
about the resistance level of spring wheat varieties can be found in
the variety evaluation reports provided by North Dakota State
University.
Link: North Dakota Hard Red Spring Wheat Variety Trial Results for 2005 (pdf)
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