Model Basics

Risk Assessment Map

The experimental models deployed by the Fusarium Prediction Center represent more than a decade of model development and testing by multiple universities. The models estimate the risk of a Fusarium head blight epidemic with greater than 10% field severity using weather variables observed 15 days prior to flowering. The model uses the relative humidity within a region to estimate the risk of severe disease.

These extended preiods of high relative humidity indicate that conditions are favorable for the Fusarium fungus to reproduce and spread to the wheat crop. Severe disease is most likely when these humid conditions occur just prior to- and during- the flowering of the wheat crop. Testing of these models indicates that the models are correct about 70-80% of the time.

The models presented here are only one source of information available to help make management decisions. We strongly encourage you to consult with local extension specialists, and crop consultants to determine if fungicide applications are needed to suppress Fusarium head blight in your area.