Disease Models

The current generation of disease prediction models uses separate models for winter and spring wheats. In general, these models are driven by observations of temperature, and relative humidity; however, specific representations of these inputs differ between models.

The winter wheat model considers the duration of time that relative humidity is 90% or greater and temperature is also between 48 and 85°F (9 -30°C). In the past we have offered a special sub-model for winter wheat planted into corn residue. This model is currently undergoing revision and will not be available for the 2007 growing season. The spring wheat model is now in its second season of operation. This model uses average relative humidity in combination with knowledge of variety resistance level to estimate the risk of disease. Our tests indicate that the accuracy of both models ranges between 75% and 80%.