Reality Check

These experimental models are known to have an accuracy of near 80% given the data used to develop and test the models. However, weather conditions that occur during the flowering and grain fill of the crop are not considered by the models and may significantly influence the development of disease and accumulation of mycotoxins.

Use the models as a tool to help you evaluate the risk of disease development, but also carefully evaluate other sources of information such weather forecasts, grain markets, and local experts to help you make disease management decisions. In an effort to help you access this type of synthesis, we have initiated a project that will allow your state extension specialist to provide commentary on the risk maps directly within the risk tool.