Risk Assessment Tool User Guide
Generating a Prediction
The Fusarium Prediction Center is designed to provide estimates of disease risk for regions or states of interest. The opening map shows a national level map of disease risk. Keep in mind that actual disease risk depends heavily on the growth stage of wheat in your area. The estimate is most relevant just prior to flowering or the early stages of grain development. By default, the tool displays the most current risk map, but you can look at previous dates by selecting other assessment dates from the menu on the left of the risk map.
You can incorporate predicted weather directly into the model prediction using different Weather Forecast Modes. Selecting the 24, 48 and 72 buttons in this section allows you to view risk maps that incorporate the corresponding hours of predicted weather.
The tools can zoom in to show more detail of the risk map. You can do this by selecting a state of interest from the "Choose a State" menu. You can also use the zoom tools located in the upper left corner of the risk maps to adjust the level of details displayed.
You can further customize the prediction by selecting the level of susceptibility that best matches the varieties on your farm. You should assume your variety is susceptible unless you have information suggesting otherwise. You can get more information about the susceptibility of many wheat varieties at Scab Smart.
Interpreting the Results
We recommend that you also monitor the risk of disease and your local weather forecast frequently as your wheat crop approaches the flowering stages of growth. The predictions will be most accurate at or just prior to flowering. Red and yellow colors on the risk map indicate that weather conditions are favorable for development of Fusarium head blight. A green risk map indicates that weather is not conducive for the disease. The information provided by the models is most useful when combined with local weather forecasts. Three or more days with extended periods of high relative humidity and moderate temperatures (65 to 80 F) during the early stages of kernel development favor the development of severe Fusarium head blight.
A state's commentary will appear at the top of the application when a state is selected by the user. To return to the overall United States commentary, choose United States from the Choose a State drop down menu. The information should help you identify critical growth stages for the crops and provide an expert opinion about the risk of disease in your state.
Using the Map
The map works like most web-based mapping applications. Scrolling your mouse wheel will allow you to zoom in and out and you can grab and drag the map to pan. Also, clicking the globe symbol in the upper left corner will return you to the national view.
Using Advanced Features
Risk Map Opacity
To change the opacity of the risk map layer, use the slider on the bottom of the page. This will allow you to view streets and other landmarks beneath risk map more clearly.
Query the Risk Map
To retrieve the risk at any location on the map for a prediction, activate querying by clicking the Query button and then click anywhere on the map where risk has been colored.
Advanced: Saving Locations & Settings
If you would like to save a set of model parameters and/or a selected location, use the tools here to do so. After generating a prediction, type a name into the Name box and click Save As New to store your settings. When you return to the application, you can retrieve these settings by choosing the location from the Saved Locs drop down menu. If you want delete any saved locations, just click Delete while the location is selected in the Saved Locs drop down menu. *Note: This functionality may not work on some older web browsers.